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(异域来风)ABI Research报告:新冠疫情大流行延迟工业5G的商用推广

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发表于:2020/4/13 16:00:36
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ABI Research Report: Commercial rollout of industrial 5G delayed by pandemic disruptions
ABI Research报告:新冠疫情大流行延迟工业5G的商用推广

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced a delay in the crucial standardization work that would make 5G available for enterprise use cases. The relevant standardization body, 3GPP, has formally announced a deferral of this standardization until at least June 2020, which would delay commercial rollout of industrial 5G until at least 2022. Given that most industrial enterprises are looking to upgrade their communication technology in 2021, this delay will result in 5G missing out on at least 25% of the revenue opportunities within industrial enterprises, which given the importance of industrial use cases for overall 5G revenues, this translates into 5G losing up to 10% of total 5G revenues. In the long-run, this could result in a shortfall of several U.S. billion dollars in contribution to the global economy, states global tech market advisory firm, ABI Research.

新冠肺炎迫使部署5G用于企业应用的关键标准化工作推迟。相关的标准化机构3GPP已正式宣布将该标准化推迟至2020年6月,这将把工业5G的商业推广至少推迟到2022年。鉴于大多数工业企业都希望在2021年升级其通信技术,这一延迟将导致5G失去工业企业至少25%的收入机会,考虑到工业应用对5G总体收入的重要性,这意味着5G损失了5G总收入的10%。全球技术市场咨询公司ABI Research指出,从长远来看,这可能会导致全球经济贡献减少几十亿美元。

“This is a blow to the standards bodies and the timeline of 5G,” says Leo Gergs, Principal Analyst at ABI Research. “The cancellation of leading industry events, such as Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, caused more complicated workflows for the 3GPP. As a result, the freeze of Release 16 (which is of key importance for 5G applications in industrial and logistics environments) has been delayed until June. This would, in turn, push the rollout of 5G into warehouses, shipping ports, and factory floors until at least 2022.”

ABI Research首席分析师Leo Gergs说:“这是对标准机构和5G时间线的一个打击。诸如巴塞罗那世界移动大会等领先行业活动的取消,导致3GPP的工作流程更加复杂。因此,对于工业和物流环境中5G应用至关重要的第16版的冻结已推迟到6月份。换句话说,这将使得推动5G在仓库、航运港口和工厂车间的推广,至少要等到2022年。”

Even though, in the short-term, this current pandemic is putting the timely enterprise rollout of 5G at risk (due to the delay in standardization framework), in the long-term, enterprise verticals will consider 5G for automating workflows in factories and other industrial environments in order to keep supply chain disruptions at a minimum. “However, we will also see 5G applications for life-critical verticals, such as agriculture/food production, to pick up pace, while a growing number of countries will consider enhancing their healthcare sector with 5G-enabled capabilities,” Gergs points out.

尽管从短期来看,当前疫情大流行使企业及时推出5G面临风险(由于标准化框架的延迟),但从长期来看,企业垂直部门将考虑在工厂和其他工业环境中使用5G来实现工作流程自动化,以便将供应链中断降至最低。 Gergs指出:“但是,我们也将看到5G应用在农业/食品生产等对生命至关重要的垂直行业中加速发展,同时越来越多的国家将考虑利用5G功能增强其医疗保健行业。”

Situations like these underline the importance of a technologically up-to-date healthcare system, as well as more automation in factories and production outlets. However, the current situation around COVID-19 will most probably induce a shift in the verticals that investigate 5G deployment. “While it puts 5G applications in industrial surroundings in a difficult position, current experiences will ignite considerations for 5G applications in healthcare and agriculture/food production. The telco ecosystem must prepare for this shift,” Gergs recommends.

诸如此类的情况突显了医疗保健系统采纳最新技术,以及工厂和生产网点自动化程度的重要性。不过,新冠肺炎的现状很可能会导致研究5G部署的垂直市场发生转变。“虽然这让5G在工业环境中的应用陷入困境,但当前的经验将激发对5G在医疗保健和农业/食品生产中的应用的考虑。电信业界必须为这一转变做好准备,”Gergs建议。
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